“No one knows what the next 2-3 years will bring”
Upturns and downturns in economic cycles form the classical basis for market analyses. We do, however, live in a transformed world. We’re facing tremendous political and economic uncertainties along with a lot of capital and a new pace. Is the “old-fashioned way of thinking” still valid or is it long since outdated? Experts in economy and finances have discussed these issues in the opening event of the EXPO REAL FORUM, moderated by Prof. Dr. Tobias Just, IREBS Immobilienakademie.
Basically, all participants agreed upon the following: the next two to three years to come are predictable at least to some extent – anything beyond will remain vague.
Claus Thomas of LaSalle summarizes the perspective of the investors: “Investors question in which projects at which sites they could invest, which still exhibit a longterm user demand.”
”The central bank has meanwhile turned a problem itself“
Prof. Lorenz Reibling of Taurus Investment evaluates the situation at least as critical – according to him, current politics will not work out for very much longer. There are many factors which might play a role in the years to come – and “the one or the other will strike for sure: there is Trump, we do have Brexit here in Europe, right on our doorstep.” On top, we might encounter “military conflicts, maybe even in Eastern Europe”, as well as “the Chinese expanding even further”. His recommendation is: ponder in time because even if “everything seems fine for the time being and to come”, one should always ask oneself the question: “What if everything is going to change again?”
Dr. Gertrud R. Traud, chief economist at Helaba, offensively attacked the ECB by her statement. According to her, time had come for monetary politics to intervene less. “We do not need monetary politics destroying the markets. The problems are no longer solved – the central bank has meanwhile turned a problem itself.” She predicts an interest rate increase no earlier than 2019.
”Sometime, any party will come to an end“
Prof. Dr. Max Otte of IFVE chooses conciliatory words, but he as well displays a moralising undertone: “We boast a property sector that is in full swing when it comes to top locations, that has been in full swing for years now with no end in sight – but eventually, any party will come to an end…”